I am extremely dubious about anything related to new music from Tool. This of course is based on past events and anticipations crushed.
I believe that Maynard James Keenan essentially often see’s Tool as a demon he let of the cage that he can’t put back. This opinion is based on numerous citations in interviews from the Tool front man reflecting at times a disdain for Tool, lamenting the adulation of fans, and disenchantment about being taken so seriously.
Despite my cynicism, I do believe that Danny Carey's recent comments on the official Tool website reflect a step toward new music from Tool. How big a step and how sustainable remain to be seen.
The following excerpt appears at the official Tool Website
“In speaking with Danny last night, he told me that the band has temporarily MOVED some of their gear into a larger space (across town) where MAYNARD is working on VOCALS for some of the new Tool material. I’m sure that he has already been doing this to some extent, but now he has more room to breathe and a better vocal booth.”